Towson at Navy

Week 1 · Sep 5Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Annapolis, MD
TowsonFCS
@
Navy1–1-0.7 vs. avg · #70

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineNavy -32Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNavy -30.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNavy -32Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward NavyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNavy -34Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward TowsonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNavy -32Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward NavyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Navy -32.5Opening Market ConsensusNavy -30.5Unexplained at open~2 pts toward TowsonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward NavyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Navy -34Current Market ConsensusNavy -30.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward TowsonExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2 pts toward NavyAt open ~0.5 pts toward NavyIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Navy

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2 pts toward NavyAt open ~0.5 pts toward NavyIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Navy
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Navy's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 71%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.0 points toward Navy (average-estimate range 1.2–3.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Towson 15 · Navy 42
Pregame OV Line
Navy -32
Final recorded market
Navy -30.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Navy -34
Actual margin
Navy by 27

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Towson 0.9%Navy 99.1%

Compare Teams

TowsonVSNavy

Model View

Overall Rating—-0.7 · #70
Offense Rating—+2.0
Defense Rating—-2.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.30
Offense Success Rate—49.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed—40.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.0
Playoff Odds—2.9%
Strength of Schedule Rank—81st