Navy has extra rest
~2 pts toward NavyNavy has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Navy; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyNavy at UAB
Week 4 · Sep 25Protective Stadium · Birmingham, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Navy -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNavy -6.510-book consensus · observed Sep 25, 6:45 PM EDT
Navy -6.510-book consensus · observed Sep 25, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNavy -9.5→Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Navy→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNavy -11.5Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward UABExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNavy -9.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward NavyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Navy -11.5Opening Market ConsensusNavy -7Unexplained at open~4.5 pts toward UABSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Navy -11.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNavy -6.5Unexplained gap~5 pts toward UABExplore similar gaps Navy has extra rest~2 pts toward Navy
Completed gameWhat happened?Navy 20 · UAB 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Navy -9.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Navy -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- Navy -11.5
- Actual margin
- UAB by 4
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNavy -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNavy -7Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Navy -7Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNavy -9.5→Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Navy→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNavy -11.5Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward UABOnVarsity Opening LineNavy -9.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward NavyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Navy -11.5Opening Market ConsensusNavy -7Unexplained gap~4.5 pts toward UABNavy has extra rest~2 pts toward Navy
Navy has extra rest
~2 pts toward NavyNavy has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Navy; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyPregame Win Probability
Navy 77.3%UAB 22.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Navy -6.5
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