Close-win regression Developing estimate
UTSA enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNavy at UTSA
Week 7 · Oct 17Alamodome · San Antonio, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
UTSA -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUTSA -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
UTSA -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward NavyExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
UTSA has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UTSA ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Navy enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Navy 34 · UTSA 38
- Pregame OV Line
- UTSA -8
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- UTSA -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- UTSA by 4
Observed 10h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUTSA -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -6.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
UTSA -6.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Navy 26.8%UTSA 73.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · UTSA -6.5
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