UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA

Week 1 · Sep 5Alamodome · San Antonio, TX
UT Rio Grande ValleyFCS
@
UTSA7–1+2.0 vs. avg · #64

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineUTSA -26Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUTSA -28.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 3:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -26Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward UTSAOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUTSA -28.5Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -26Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward UTSAOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UTSA -27.5Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -28.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward UTSASince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward UTSAOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UTSA -28.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUTSA -28.5Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionLopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward UTSAAt open ~1.5 pts toward UTSAIn-week ~1 pt toward UTSA

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward UTSAAt open ~1.5 pts toward UTSAIn-week ~1 pt toward UTSA
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put UTSA's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 58%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward UTSA (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?UT Rio Grande Valley 16 · UTSA 45
Pregame OV Line
UTSA -26
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
UTSA -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
UTSA -28.5
Actual margin
UTSA by 29

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.0%UTSA 97.0%

Compare Teams

UT Rio Grande ValleyVSUTSA

Model View

Overall Rating—+2.0 · #64
Offense Rating—+1.9
Defense Rating—+0.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.20
Offense Success Rate—43.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.14
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.0%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.8
Playoff Odds—26.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—78th