Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyColorado State at Texas State
Week 7 · Oct 15Bobcat Stadium (TX) · San Marcos, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Texas State -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTexas State -1410-book consensus · observed Oct 15, 8:45 AM EDT
Texas State -1410-book consensus · observed Oct 15, 8:45 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Texas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Texas State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 67.5.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Texas State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after losing its previous lined game by 30 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Colorado State 27 · Texas State 66
- Pregame OV Line
- Texas State -11
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Texas State -14
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Texas State by 39
Observed 11h 14m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTexas State -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas State -12Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Texas State -12Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Colorado State 20.2%Texas State 79.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas State -14
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