Portland State at San Diego State

Week 1 · Sep 5Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA
Portland StateFCS
@
San Diego State4–5-5.5 vs. avg · #86

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineSan Diego State -40.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSan Diego State -38.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 9:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSan Diego State -40.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward San Diego StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSan Diego State -41.5Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Portland StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSan Diego State -40.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Portland StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)San Diego State -39.5Opening Market ConsensusSan Diego State -39.5Unexplained at openNone at displayed precisionSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward San Diego StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)San Diego State -41.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSan Diego State -38.5Unexplained gap~3 pts toward Portland StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward San Diego StateAt open ~1 pt toward Portland StateIn-week ~2 pts toward San Diego State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward San Diego StateAt open ~1 pt toward Portland StateIn-week ~2 pts toward San Diego State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put San Diego State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 83%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.0 points toward San Diego State (average-estimate range 0.1–2.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Portland State 20 · San Diego State 53
Pregame OV Line
San Diego State -40.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
San Diego State -38.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
San Diego State -41.5
Actual margin
San Diego State by 33

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Portland State 0.1%San Diego State 99.9%

Compare Teams

Portland StateVSSan Diego State

Model View

Overall Rating—-5.5 · #86
Offense Rating—-4.9
Defense Rating—-0.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.12
Offense Success Rate—41.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—-0.02
Defense Success Rate Allowed—35.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—70th