Close-win regression Developing estimate
Western Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBoise State at Western Michigan
Week 4 · Sep 26Waldo Stadium · Kalamazoo, MI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Boise State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBoise State -8.510-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDT
Boise State -8.510-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Western MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Western Michigan is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Boise State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Boise State 32 · Western Michigan 7
- Pregame OV Line
- Boise State -12
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Boise State -8.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Boise State by 25
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBoise State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBoise State -7Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Boise State -7Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Boise State 83.2%Western Michigan 16.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Boise State -8.5
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