Boise State at Fresno State

Week 6 · Oct 10Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineBoise State -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBoise State -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 10, 12:16 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Fresno StateExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Boise State 38 · Fresno State 31
Pregame OV Line
Boise State -9
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Boise State -7.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Boise State by 7

Observed 10h 13m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Boise State 76.1%Fresno State 23.9%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Straight-up winner

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Compare Teams

Boise StateVSFresno State

Model View

Overall Rating+12.4 · #32+2.1 · #62
Offense Rating+6.0-0.9
Defense Rating+6.3+3.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.10
Offense Success Rate40.9%39.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.08
Defense Success Rate Allowed35.3%38.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.26.8
Playoff Odds74.1%0.2%
Strength of Schedule Rank74th80th