Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Boise State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUtah State at Boise State
Week 5 · Oct 3Albertsons Stadium · Boise, ID
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Boise State -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBoise State -19.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Boise State -19.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Boise StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Boise State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Boise State has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Boise State is favored by 20.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Boise State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Utah State is a 20.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Utah State lost the most recent meeting with Boise State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Utah State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Utah State 18 · Boise State 37
- Pregame OV Line
- Boise State -18
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Boise State -19.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Boise State by 19
Observed 11h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBoise State -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBoise State -19.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Boise State -19.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Utah State 7.7%Boise State 92.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Boise State -19.5
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