Boise State at Washington State

Week 8 · Oct 24Gesa Field · Pullman, WA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineBoise State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBoise State -14.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineBoise State -16.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Boise StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineBoise State -18Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Washington StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineBoise State -16.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Boise StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Boise State -18Opening Market ConsensusBoise State -15.5Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward Washington StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Boise State -18Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBoise State -14.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Washington StateExplore similar gaps Boise State has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Boise State

Boise State has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Boise State

Boise State has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Boise State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Washington State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Washington State enters after losing its previous lined game by 18 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Washington State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Washington State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Washington State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Washington State lost the most recent meeting with Boise State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Washington State lost the most recent meeting with Boise State by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Boise State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Boise State has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Boise State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Boise State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Boise State 31 · Washington State 10
Pregame OV Line
Boise State -16.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Boise State -14.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Boise State -18
Actual margin
Boise State by 21

Observed 3h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Boise State 89.6%Washington State 10.4%

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Compare Teams

Boise StateVSWashington State

Model View

Overall Rating+12.4 · #32-5.7 · #87
Offense Rating+6.0-2.5
Defense Rating+6.3-3.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.13
Offense Success Rate40.9%41.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed35.3%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.25.2
Playoff Odds74.1%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank74th60th