Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Boise State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMemphis at Boise State
Week 2 · Sep 12Albertsons Stadium · Boise, ID
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Boise State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusBoise State -92-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Boise State -92-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward MemphisExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Boise State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 585 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Boise State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Boise State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Boise State lost the most recent meeting with Memphis.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Memphis ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Memphis 20 · Boise State 38
- Pregame OV Line
- Boise State -13
- Final recorded market
- Boise State -9
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Boise State by 18
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBoise State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Boise State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBoise State -7Based on 2 books
Boise State -7Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Memphis 15.3%Boise State 84.7%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Boise State -9
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