Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Kansas State is favored by 19.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWashington State at Kansas State
Week 2 · Sep 12Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Kansas State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kansas State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusKansas State -19.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Kansas State -19.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~6.5 pts toward Kansas StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Kansas State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Washington State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Washington State enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Washington State is a 19.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Washington State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Washington State 7 · Kansas State 34
- Pregame OV Line
- Kansas State -13
- Final recorded market
- Kansas State -19.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Kansas State by 27
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineKansas State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kansas State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusKansas State -17.5Based on 2 books
Kansas State -17.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Washington State 15.6%Kansas State 84.4%
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Market consensus · Kansas State -19.5
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