Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
USC enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWashington at USC
Week 5 · Oct 3Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
USC -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
USC -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUSC -911-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
USC -911-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward USCExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
USC enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
USC has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
USC is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
USC begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
USC ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
USC lost the most recent meeting with Washington.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Washington enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Washington was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Washington enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Washington has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Washington begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Washington ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Washington is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Washington 21 · USC 25
- Pregame OV Line
- USC -7
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- USC -9
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- USC by 4
Observed 11h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUSC -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
USC -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUSC -9Earliest observed 2-book consensus
USC -9Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Washington 29.6%USC 70.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · USC -9
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