Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Washington enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIowa at Washington
Week 6 · Oct 9Husky Stadium · Seattle, WA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Washington -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWashington -311-book consensus · observed Oct 9, 7:49 PM EDT
Washington -311-book consensus · observed Oct 9, 7:49 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward WashingtonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Washington enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Washington enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Washington is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Washington begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Washington ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Washington lost the most recent meeting with Iowa.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Washington lost the most recent meeting with Iowa by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Iowa begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Iowa is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Iowa 41 · Washington 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Washington -2
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Washington -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Iowa by 17
Observed 1h 10m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWashington -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWashington -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Washington -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Iowa 43.5%Washington 56.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Washington -3
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