Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Washington was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State at Washington
Week 10 · Nov 7Husky Stadium · Seattle, WA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Penn State -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market Consensus
Washington -211-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Washington -211-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward WashingtonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Washington enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Washington ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Washington lost the most recent meeting with Penn State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Washington lost the most recent meeting with Penn State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LinePenn State -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWashington -2Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Washington -2Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Penn State 50.8%Washington 49.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Washington -2
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