Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Colorado State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBYU at Colorado State
Week 3 · Sep 19Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO
Matchup View
Opening Line
BYU -18.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -18.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusBYU -17.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
BYU -17.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Colorado StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Colorado State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Colorado State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Colorado State is a 17.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
BYU is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
BYU is favored by 17.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
BYU begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
BYU ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
BYU is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
BYU faces materially stronger TCU in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
BYU is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger TCU.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineBYU -18.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -18.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBYU -19.5Based on 2 books
BYU -19.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
BYU 92.5%Colorado State 7.5%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · BYU -17.5
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