Wyoming at Colorado State

Week 1 · Sep 5Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO
Wyoming1–1-10.8 vs. avg · #109
@
Colorado State2–0-6.4 vs. avg · #90

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineColorado State -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusColorado State -3.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineColorado State -8Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward WyomingOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineColorado State -7Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineColorado State -8Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward WyomingOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Colorado State -7.5Opening Market ConsensusColorado State -4Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward WyomingSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward WyomingOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Colorado State -7Current Market ConsensusColorado State -3.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps Inexperienced starting QB~1 pt toward WyomingAt open ~0.5 pts toward WyomingIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Wyoming

Inexperienced starting QB

~1 pt toward WyomingAt open ~0.5 pts toward WyomingIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Wyoming
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Hauss Hejny is expected to start at quarterback for Colorado State with only 10 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Revenge game Developing estimate

Colorado State lost the most recent meeting with Wyoming.

Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Colorado State lost the most recent meeting with Wyoming by at least 14 points.

Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Wyoming is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Wyoming is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Season Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment

Jim Mora begins his first Colorado State season; Wyoming returns Jay Sawvel. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.

Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Wyoming 13 · Colorado State 35
Pregame OV Line
Colorado State -8
Final recorded market
Colorado State -3.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Colorado State -7
Actual margin
Colorado State by 22

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Wyoming 28.4%Colorado State 71.6%

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Compare Teams

WyomingVSColorado State

Model View

Overall Rating-10.8 · #109-6.4 · #90
Offense Rating-8.6-3.1
Defense Rating-2.2-3.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.050.12
Offense Success Rate37.9%39.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.070.24
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.8%44.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.73.9
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.9%
Strength of Schedule Rank112th74th