Wyoming at UNLV

Week 10 · Nov 7Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV

Matchup View

Opening LineUNLV -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusUNLV -6.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUNLV -10.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward WyomingOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUNLV -8.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUNLV -10.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward WyomingOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UNLV -8.5Opening Market ConsensusUNLV -6.5Unexplained at open~2 pts toward WyomingSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UNLV -8.5Current Market ConsensusUNLV -6.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps Wyoming has extra rest~2 pts toward Wyoming

Wyoming has extra rest

~2 pts toward Wyoming

Wyoming has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Wyoming; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

UNLV enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

UNLV ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

UNLV faces materially stronger New Mexico in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Wyoming was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Wyoming has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Wyoming has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Wyoming is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Wyoming lost the most recent meeting with UNLV.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Wyoming lost the most recent meeting with UNLV by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Wyoming 21.2%UNLV 78.8%

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Compare Teams

WyomingVSUNLV

Model View

Overall Rating-12.0 · #110-4.2 · #83
Offense Rating-9.2+0.3
Defense Rating-2.8-4.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.050.30
Offense Success Rate37.9%46.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.070.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.8%44.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.78.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank113th99th