Fordham at North Dakota State

Week 1 · Sep 5Fargodome · Fargo, ND
FordhamFCS
@
North Dakota State7–2+0.0 vs. avg · #72

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -41.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 3:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Factor Adjustments≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorth Dakota State -41Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward North Dakota StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward FordhamOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)North Dakota State -40Opening Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -40.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward North Dakota StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward North Dakota StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)North Dakota State -41Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -41.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward North Dakota StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty< 0.5 pts toward FordhamAt open ~1 pt toward FordhamIn-week ~1 pt toward North Dakota State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

< 0.5 pts toward FordhamAt open ~1 pt toward FordhamIn-week ~1 pt toward North Dakota State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put North Dakota State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 83%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.1 points toward Fordham, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Fordham 0 · North Dakota State 38
Pregame OV Line
North Dakota State -41
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
North Dakota State -41.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
North Dakota State -41
Actual margin
North Dakota State by 38

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Fordham 0.1%North Dakota State 99.9%

Compare Teams

FordhamVSNorth Dakota State

Model View

Overall Rating—+0.0 · #72
Offense Rating—+0.0
Defense Rating—+0.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play——
Offense Success Rate——
Defense PPA/Play Allowed——
Defense Success Rate Allowed——

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.9
Playoff Odds—0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—132nd