Fordham at North Dakota State

Week 1 · Sep 5Fargodome · Fargo, ND
FordhamFCS
@
North Dakota State3–0-2.0 vs. avg · #77

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -39.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Factor Adjustments≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorth Dakota State -41Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward FordhamExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -41Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward FordhamOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)North Dakota State -40Opening Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -40.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward North Dakota StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward North Dakota StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)North Dakota State -41Current Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -39.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward FordhamExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty< 0.5 pts toward FordhamAt open ~1 pt toward FordhamIn-week ~1 pt toward North Dakota State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

< 0.5 pts toward FordhamAt open ~1 pt toward FordhamIn-week ~1 pt toward North Dakota State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put North Dakota State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 83%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.1 points toward Fordham, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Fordham 0 · North Dakota State 38
Pregame OV Line
North Dakota State -41
Final recorded market
North Dakota State -39.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
North Dakota State -41
Actual margin
North Dakota State by 38

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Fordham 0.1%North Dakota State 99.9%

Compare Teams

FordhamVSNorth Dakota State

Model View

Overall Rating—-2.0 · #77
Offense Rating—-1.0
Defense Rating—-1.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play——
Offense Success Rate——
Defense PPA/Play Allowed——
Defense Success Rate Allowed——

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.9
Playoff Odds—2.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank—127th