Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Week 9 · Oct 28Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineJacksonville State -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusJacksonville State -311-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineJacksonville State -1.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Jacksonville StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineJacksonville State -3.5Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineJacksonville State -1.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Jacksonville StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Jacksonville State -3.5Opening Market ConsensusJacksonville State -3Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward New Mexico StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Jacksonville State -3.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusJacksonville State -3Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps Jacksonville State has extra rest~2 pts toward Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State has extra rest

~2 pts toward Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Jacksonville State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

New Mexico State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

New Mexico State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Jacksonville State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Jacksonville State by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Jacksonville State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Jacksonville State has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Jacksonville State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Jacksonville State 24 · New Mexico State 0
Pregame OV Line
Jacksonville State -1.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Jacksonville State -3
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Jacksonville State -3.5
Actual margin
Jacksonville State by 24

Observed 51h 36m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Jacksonville State 54.4%New Mexico State 45.6%

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Compare Teams

Jacksonville StateVSNew Mexico State

Model View

Overall Rating-10.4 · #101-18.0 · #126
Offense Rating-4.6-12.0
Defense Rating-5.8-6.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.190.03
Offense Success Rate43.9%36.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.150.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.0%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.34.4
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank134th117th