Missouri State at Western Kentucky

Week 6 · Oct 8Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY
Missouri State3–5-18.0 vs. avg · #125
@
Western Kentucky3–5-15.1 vs. avg · #119

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineWestern Kentucky -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -1.511-book consensus · observed Oct 8, 8:05 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Missouri StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWestern Kentucky -4Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Missouri StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Western Kentucky -4Opening Market ConsensusMissouri State -0.5Unexplained at open~4.5 pts toward Missouri StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Western Kentucky -4Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -1.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gaps Missouri State has extra rest~1 pt toward Missouri State

Missouri State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Missouri State

Missouri State has 5.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.2 points toward Missouri State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Missouri State 13 · Western Kentucky 34
Pregame OV Line
Western Kentucky -5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Western Kentucky -1.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Western Kentucky -4
Actual margin
Western Kentucky by 21

Observed 10h 54m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Missouri State 34.9%Western Kentucky 65.1%

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Compare Teams

Missouri StateVSWestern Kentucky

Model View

Overall Rating-18.0 · #125-15.1 · #119
Offense Rating-8.4-7.5
Defense Rating-9.5-7.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.17
Offense Success Rate39.3%43.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.6%36.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.97.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank103rd94th