Gardner-Webb at Marshall

Week 4 · Sep 26Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Huntington, WV
Gardner-WebbFCS
@
Marshall5–3-11.7 vs. avg · #108

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineMarshall -20.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMarshall -24.57-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMarshall -20.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Gardner-WebbOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMarshall -18.5Unexplained Gap~6 pts toward MarshallExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMarshall -20.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Gardner-WebbOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Marshall -18.5Opening Market ConsensusMarshall -23.5Unexplained at open~5 pts toward MarshallSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Marshall -18.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMarshall -24.5Unexplained gap~6 pts toward MarshallExplore similar gaps Gardner-Webb has extra rest~2 pts toward Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb has extra rest

~2 pts toward Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb has 7.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Gardner-Webb; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Gardner-Webb 35 · Marshall 36
Pregame OV Line
Marshall -20.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Marshall -24.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Marshall -18.5
Actual margin
Marshall by 1

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Gardner-Webb 12.6%Marshall 87.4%

Compare Teams

Gardner-WebbVSMarshall

Model View

Overall Rating—-11.7 · #108
Offense Rating—-4.6
Defense Rating—-7.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.16
Offense Success Rate—43.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.16
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.4
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—118th