Marshall at Penn State

Week 1 · Sep 5Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA
Marshall1–1-9.0 vs. avg · #98
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Penn State2–0+16.3 vs. avg · #18

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LinePenn State -25Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusPenn State -24.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LinePenn State -25Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward MarshallOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LinePenn State -23.5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Penn StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LinePenn State -25Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward MarshallOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Penn State -23Opening Market ConsensusPenn State -23.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Penn StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward Penn StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Penn State -23.5Current Market ConsensusPenn State -24.5Unexplained gap~1 pt toward Penn StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward MarshallAt open ~2 pts toward MarshallIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Penn State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward MarshallAt open ~2 pts toward MarshallIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Penn State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Penn State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 40%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.5 points toward Marshall (average-estimate range 0.9–2.6), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Penn State is favored by 24.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Marshall is a 24.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Season Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment

Matt Campbell begins his first Penn State season; Marshall returns Tony Gibson. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.

Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Marshall 0 · Penn State 45
Pregame OV Line
Penn State -25
Final recorded market
Penn State -24.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Penn State -23.5
Actual margin
Penn State by 45

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Marshall 3.3%Penn State 96.7%

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Compare Teams

MarshallVSPenn State

Model View

Overall Rating-9.0 · #98+16.3 · #18
Offense Rating-3.3+7.9
Defense Rating-5.8+8.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.23
Offense Success Rate43.9%46.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed38.6%40.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.49.1
Playoff Odds0.2%33.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank117th68th