Northern Illinois at Georgia State

Week 4 · Sep 26Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia State -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia State -8.59-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 1:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Northern Illinois 14 · Georgia State 35
Pregame OV Line
Georgia State -7
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Georgia State -8.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Georgia State by 21

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Northern Illinois 28.9%Georgia State 71.1%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Straight-up winner

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Compare Teams

Northern IllinoisVSGeorgia State

Model View

Overall Rating-21.3 · #132-11.7 · #109
Offense Rating-11.6-4.3
Defense Rating-9.8-7.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.050.13
Offense Success Rate34.7%40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.28
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.4%46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.33.9
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank85th114th