North Carolina A&T at Georgia State

Week 1 · Sep 4Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA
North Carolina A&TFCS
@
Georgia State2–0-17.2 vs. avg · #123

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia State -30Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia State -29Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia State -30Current Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateIn-week ~1 pt toward Georgia State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateIn-week ~1 pt toward Georgia State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Georgia State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 62%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Georgia State (average-estimate range 1.7–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?North Carolina A&T 10 · Georgia State 59
Pregame OV Line
Georgia State -27.5
Final recorded market
Georgia State -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia State -30
Actual margin
Georgia State by 49

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
North Carolina A&T 2.3%Georgia State 97.7%

Compare Teams

North Carolina A&TVSGeorgia State

Model View

Overall Rating—-17.2 · #123
Offense Rating—-7.0
Defense Rating—-10.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.13
Offense Success Rate—40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.28
Defense Success Rate Allowed—46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—106th