North Carolina A&T at Georgia State

Week 1 · Sep 4Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA
North Carolina A&TFCS
@
Georgia State4–4-11.7 vs. avg · #109

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.59-book consensus · observed Sep 4, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia State -30Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -27.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia State -29Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia State -30Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia State -28.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward North Carolina A&TExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateIn-week ~1 pt toward Georgia State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward Georgia StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateIn-week ~1 pt toward Georgia State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Georgia State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 62%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Georgia State (average-estimate range 1.7–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?North Carolina A&T 10 · Georgia State 59
Pregame OV Line
Georgia State -27.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Georgia State -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia State -30
Actual margin
Georgia State by 49

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
North Carolina A&T 2.3%Georgia State 97.7%

Compare Teams

North Carolina A&TVSGeorgia State

Model View

Overall Rating—-11.7 · #109
Offense Rating—-4.3
Defense Rating—-7.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.13
Offense Success Rate—40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.28
Defense Success Rate Allowed—46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—114th