Georgia State at James Madison

Week 7 · Oct 17Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg, VA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineJames Madison -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusJames Madison -9.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineJames Madison -13Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineJames Madison -11Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineJames Madison -13Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Georgia StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)James Madison -11Opening Market ConsensusJames Madison -12Unexplained at open~1 pt toward James MadisonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)James Madison -11Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusJames Madison -9.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateExplore similar gaps Georgia State has extra rest~2 pts toward Georgia State

Georgia State has extra rest

~2 pts toward Georgia State

Georgia State has 7.2 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Georgia State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

James Madison enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

James Madison has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

James Madison ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Georgia State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Georgia State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Georgia State has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Georgia State lost the most recent meeting with James Madison.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Georgia State 22 · James Madison 49
Pregame OV Line
James Madison -13
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
James Madison -9.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
James Madison -11
Actual margin
James Madison by 27

Observed 2h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Georgia State 16.3%James Madison 83.7%

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Compare Teams

Georgia StateVSJames Madison

Model View

Overall Rating-11.7 · #109+1.3 · #68
Offense Rating-4.3-0.0
Defense Rating-7.4+1.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.130.23
Offense Success Rate40.4%45.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.280.00
Defense Success Rate Allowed46.2%30.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.98.8
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank114th116th