Bethune-Cookman at UCF

Week 1 · Sep 3FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando, FL
Bethune-CookmanFCS
@
UCF1–1+3.7 vs. avg · #54

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineUCF -38.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusUCF -42.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUCF -38.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward UCFOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUCF -40Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward UCFExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUCF -38.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UCF -38Opening Market ConsensusUCF -41.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward UCFSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward UCFOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UCF -40Current Market ConsensusUCF -42.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward UCFExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward UCFAt open ~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanIn-week ~1.5 pts toward UCF

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward UCFAt open ~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanIn-week ~1.5 pts toward UCF
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put UCF's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 80%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.3 points toward UCF (average-estimate range 0.4–2.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Bethune-Cookman 6 · UCF 73
Pregame OV Line
UCF -38.5
Final recorded market
UCF -42.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
UCF -40
Actual margin
UCF by 67

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Bethune-Cookman 0.2%UCF 99.8%

Compare Teams

Bethune-CookmanVSUCF

Model View

Overall Rating—+3.7 · #54
Offense Rating—+0.8
Defense Rating—+2.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.15
Offense Success Rate—39.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—42.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.9
Playoff Odds—0.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank—57th