Bethune-Cookman at UCF

Week 1 · Sep 3FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando, FL
Bethune-CookmanFCS
@
UCF4–4+2.9 vs. avg · #56

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineUCF -38.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUCF -439-book consensus · observed Sep 3, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUCF -38.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward UCFOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUCF -40Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward UCFExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUCF -38.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UCF -38Opening Market ConsensusUCF -41.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward UCFSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward UCFOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UCF -40Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusUCF -43Unexplained gap~3 pts toward UCFExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward UCFAt open ~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanIn-week ~1.5 pts toward UCF

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward UCFAt open ~0.5 pts toward Bethune-CookmanIn-week ~1.5 pts toward UCF
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put UCF's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 80%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.3 points toward UCF (average-estimate range 0.4–2.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Bethune-Cookman 6 · UCF 73
Pregame OV Line
UCF -38.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
UCF -43
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
UCF -40
Actual margin
UCF by 67

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Bethune-Cookman 0.2%UCF 99.8%

Compare Teams

Bethune-CookmanVSUCF

Model View

Overall Rating—+2.9 · #56
Offense Rating—+0.4
Defense Rating—+2.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.15
Offense Success Rate—39.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—42.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—52nd