Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Tulsa is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOklahoma State at Tulsa
Week 1 · Sep 5Chapman Stadium · Tulsa, OK
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Oklahoma State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oklahoma State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusOklahoma State -142-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Oklahoma State -142-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Tulsa is a 14.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Tulsa is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Oklahoma State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Oklahoma State is favored by 14.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Oklahoma State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 60.8.
Studied in 288 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Oklahoma State lost the most recent meeting with Tulsa.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Oklahoma State faces materially stronger Oregon in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Oklahoma State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Oregon.
Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySeason Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Eric Morris begins his first Oklahoma State season; Tulsa returns Tre Lamb. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Oklahoma State 10 · Tulsa 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Oklahoma State -12.5
- Final recorded market
- Oklahoma State -14
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Tulsa by 14
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineOklahoma State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oklahoma State -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOklahoma State -11.5Based on 2 books
Oklahoma State -11.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Oklahoma State 81.7%Tulsa 18.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Oklahoma State -14
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 5.