Murray State at Oklahoma State

Week 3 · Sep 19Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK
Murray StateFCS
@
Oklahoma State5–3+12.0 vs. avg · #34

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineOklahoma State -38.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusOklahoma State -55.57-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineOklahoma State -38.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Murray StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineOklahoma State -37Unexplained Gap~18.5 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineOklahoma State -38.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Murray StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Oklahoma State -37Opening Market ConsensusOklahoma State -56Unexplained at open~19 pts toward Oklahoma StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Oklahoma State -37Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusOklahoma State -55.5Unexplained gap~18.5 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gaps Murray State has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Murray State

Murray State has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Murray State

Murray State has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Murray State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Murray State 0 · Oklahoma State 59
Pregame OV Line
Oklahoma State -38.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Oklahoma State -55.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Oklahoma State -37
Actual margin
Oklahoma State by 59

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Murray State 0.2%Oklahoma State 99.8%

Compare Teams

Murray StateVSOklahoma State

Model View

Overall Rating—+12.0 · #34
Offense Rating—+4.0
Defense Rating—+7.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—-0.01
Offense Success Rate—34.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.26
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.2
Playoff Odds—3.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—51st