Nicholls at Kansas State

Week 1 · Sep 5Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
NichollsFCS
@
Kansas State2–0+12.9 vs. avg · #22

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineKansas State -42Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusKansas State -40.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineKansas State -42Factor Adjustments~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineKansas State -42.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward NichollsExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineKansas State -42Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward NichollsOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Kansas State -41Opening Market ConsensusKansas State -40.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward NichollsSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward Kansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Kansas State -42.5Current Market ConsensusKansas State -40.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward NichollsExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateAt open ~1 pt toward NichollsIn-week ~2 pts toward Kansas State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateAt open ~1 pt toward NichollsIn-week ~2 pts toward Kansas State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Kansas State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 85%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.7 points toward Kansas State, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Nicholls 3 · Kansas State 71
Pregame OV Line
Kansas State -42
Final recorded market
Kansas State -40.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Kansas State -42.5
Actual margin
Kansas State by 68

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Nicholls 0.1%Kansas State 99.9%

Compare Teams

NichollsVSKansas State

Model View

Overall Rating—+12.9 · #22
Offense Rating—+7.3
Defense Rating—+5.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.21
Offense Success Rate—40.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.12
Defense Success Rate Allowed—39.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.2
Playoff Odds—25.9%
Strength of Schedule Rank—61st