Boston College at Cincinnati

Week 1 · Sep 5Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Boston College1–1-3.7 vs. avg · #82
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Cincinnati2–0+2.0 vs. avg · #59

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineCincinnati -10.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusCincinnati -7.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineCincinnati -10.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward CincinnatiOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineCincinnati -11.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Boston CollegeExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineCincinnati -10.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward CincinnatiOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Cincinnati -11Opening Market ConsensusCincinnati -9.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward Boston CollegeSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward CincinnatiOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Cincinnati -11.5Current Market ConsensusCincinnati -7.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward Boston CollegeExplore similar gaps Inexperienced starting QB~1 pt toward CincinnatiAt open ~0.5 pts toward CincinnatiIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Inexperienced starting QB

~1 pt toward CincinnatiAt open ~0.5 pts toward CincinnatiIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Cincinnati
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Mason McKenzie is expected to start at quarterback for Boston College with only 38 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Boston College 15 · Cincinnati 34
Pregame OV Line
Cincinnati -10.5
Final recorded market
Cincinnati -7.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Cincinnati -11.5
Actual margin
Cincinnati by 19

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Boston College 23.2%Cincinnati 76.8%

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Compare Teams

Boston CollegeVSCincinnati

Model View

Overall Rating-3.7 · #82+2.0 · #59
Offense Rating-1.1+2.9
Defense Rating-2.6-0.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.30
Offense Success Rate43.0%46.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.230.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.9%43.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.25.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank28th40th