Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Baylor enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTCU at Baylor
Week 7 · Oct 17McLane Stadium · Waco, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Baylor -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Baylor -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBaylor -5.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Baylor -5.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward TCUExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Baylor enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Baylor was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Baylor has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Baylor lost the most recent meeting with TCU.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
TCU enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
TCU enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
TCU enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
TCU is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?TCU 17 · Baylor 6
- Pregame OV Line
- Baylor -6.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Baylor -5.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- TCU by 11
Observed 9h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBaylor -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Baylor -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBaylor -6.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Baylor -6.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
TCU 31.0%Baylor 69.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Baylor -5.5
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