Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Auburn enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida at Auburn
Week 3 · Sep 19Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn, AL
Matchup View
Opening Line
Florida -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusFlorida -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Florida -2.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward AuburnExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Auburn enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Auburn is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Auburn lost the most recent meeting with Florida.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Florida is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Florida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineFlorida -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusFlorida -0.5Based on 2 books
Florida -0.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Florida 59.0%Auburn 41.0%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Florida -2.5
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