Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Alabama has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyAuburn at Alabama
Week 13 · Nov 27Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL
FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
Matchup View
Opening Line
Alabama -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Single-Book LineAlabama -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Alabama -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward AuburnExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Alabama begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Auburn enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Auburn enters after losing its previous lined game by 30 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Auburn enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Auburn is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Auburn lost the most recent meeting with Alabama.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Auburn is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineAlabama -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAlabama -10Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Alabama -10Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Auburn 12.5%Alabama 87.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Alabama -10
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