Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Tennessee enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyAuburn at Tennessee
Week 5 · Oct 3Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Tennessee -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Tennessee -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTennessee -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Tennessee -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward AuburnExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Tennessee enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Tennessee is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Tennessee begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Tennessee ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Auburn enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Auburn is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Auburn lost the most recent meeting with Tennessee.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Auburn faces materially stronger Georgia in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Auburn 14 · Tennessee 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Tennessee -8.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Tennessee -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Tennessee by 10
Observed 7h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTennessee -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Tennessee -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTennessee -8Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Tennessee -8Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Auburn 25.4%Tennessee 74.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Tennessee -6.5
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