Florida vs Georgia

Week 9 · Oct 31Neutral Site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Matchup View

Opening LineGeorgia -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -12.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -8.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia -10Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward GeorgiaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -8.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia -10Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -12.5Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward GeorgiaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia -10Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -12.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward GeorgiaExplore similar gaps Neutral venue is in Georgia's home state~1.5 pts toward Georgia

Neutral venue is in Georgia's home state

~1.5 pts toward Georgia
Estimate is uncertain

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is about 60 miles from Georgia's home stadium and 308 miles from Florida's. That does not mean the crowd will favor Georgia, and the travel difference may be modest.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Georgia begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Georgia ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Florida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Florida lost the most recent meeting with Georgia.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Florida is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Florida 25.8%Georgia 74.2%

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Compare Teams

FloridaVSGeorgia

Model View

Overall Rating+17.4 · #16+25.7 · #6
Offense Rating+9.0+13.4
Defense Rating+8.4+12.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.140.24
Offense Success Rate42.9%47.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.9%38.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.010.1
Playoff Odds18.7%69.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank5th19th