Florida vs Georgia

Week 9 · Oct 31Neutral Site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia -11.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -10Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia -11.5Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -10Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia -11.5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -10Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward FloridaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia -11.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia -11.5Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionNeutral venue is in Georgia's home state~1.5 pts toward Georgia

Neutral venue is in Georgia's home state

~1.5 pts toward Georgia
Estimate is uncertain

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is about 60 miles from Georgia's home stadium and 308 miles from Florida's. That does not mean the crowd will favor Georgia, and the travel difference may be modest.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Georgia begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Georgia ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Florida was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Florida enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Florida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Florida lost the most recent meeting with Georgia.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Florida is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Florida 8 · Georgia 27
Pregame OV Line
Georgia -10
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Georgia -11.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia -11.5
Actual margin
Georgia by 19

Observed 9h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Florida 21.7%Georgia 78.3%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 31.

Compare Teams

FloridaVSGeorgia

Model View

Overall Rating+15.2 · #18+26.1 · #3
Offense Rating+7.9+13.6
Defense Rating+7.3+12.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.140.24
Offense Success Rate42.9%47.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.9%38.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.010.1
Playoff Odds7.6%83.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank6th21st