Close-win regression Developing estimate
Tennessee enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyAlabama at Tennessee
Week 7 · Oct 17Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Alabama -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusAlabama -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Alabama -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Tennessee is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Tennessee begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Tennessee ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Tennessee lost the most recent meeting with Alabama.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Tennessee lost the most recent meeting with Alabama by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Tennessee is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Alabama enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Alabama was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Alabama enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Alabama is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Alabama is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Alabama begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Alabama is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Alabama 10 · Tennessee 26
- Pregame OV Line
- Alabama -7.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Alabama -7.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Tennessee by 16
Observed 6h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineAlabama -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAlabama -5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Alabama -5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Alabama 71.9%Tennessee 28.1%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Alabama -7.5
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