Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Ole Miss enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMississippi State at Ole Miss
Week 13 · Nov 27Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford, MS
Matchup View
Opening Line
Ole Miss -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ole Miss -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Single-Book LineOle Miss -14.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Ole Miss -14.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Mississippi StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Ole Miss enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Ole Miss is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Ole Miss begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Ole Miss ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Mississippi State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Mississippi State lost the most recent meeting with Ole Miss.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Mississippi State lost the most recent meeting with Ole Miss by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Mississippi State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineOle Miss -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ole Miss -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOle Miss -14.5Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Ole Miss -14.5Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Mississippi State 10.7%Ole Miss 89.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Ole Miss -14.5
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