Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Troy enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUL Monroe at Troy
Week 8 · Oct 24Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Troy -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTroy -1311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Troy -1311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward UL MonroeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Troy enters after losing its previous lined game by 27 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Troy is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Troy is favored by 14.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Troy faces materially stronger James Madison in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Troy is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger James Madison.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
UL Monroe has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe is a 14.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UL Monroe lost the most recent meeting with Troy.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
UL Monroe lost the most recent meeting with Troy by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
UL Monroe is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UL Monroe 21 · Troy 14
- Pregame OV Line
- Troy -17.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Troy -13
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- UL Monroe by 7
Observed 1h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTroy -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTroy -16.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Troy -16.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UL Monroe 8.7%Troy 91.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Troy -13
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