Tarleton State at Bowling Green

Week 1 · Sep 5Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green, OH

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineTarleton State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusBowling Green -2.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward Bowling GreenExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Tarleton State 20 · Bowling Green 13
Pregame OV Line
Tarleton State -2.5
Final recorded market
Bowling Green -2.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Tarleton State by 7

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Tarleton State 58.0%Bowling Green 42.0%

Compare Teams

Tarleton StateVSBowling Green

Model View

Overall Rating-17.4 · #124
Offense Rating-11.5
Defense Rating-5.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.03
Offense Success Rate35.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.0
Playoff Odds<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank124th