VMI at Virginia Tech

Week 1 · Sep 5Lane Stadium · Blacksburg, VA
VMIFCS
@
Virginia Tech6–2+5.7 vs. avg · #47

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineVirginia Tech -52.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusVirginia Tech -54.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 7:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineVirginia Tech -52.5Factor Adjustments~3.5 pts toward VMIOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineVirginia Tech -49Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward Virginia TechExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineVirginia Tech -52.5Factor adjustment (Open)~5.5 pts toward VMIOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Virginia Tech -47Opening Market ConsensusVirginia Tech -53Unexplained at open~6 pts toward Virginia TechSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward Virginia TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Virginia Tech -49Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusVirginia Tech -54.5Unexplained gap~5.5 pts toward Virginia TechExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~3.5 pts toward VMIAt open ~5.5 pts toward VMIIn-week ~2 pts toward Virginia Tech

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~3.5 pts toward VMIAt open ~5.5 pts toward VMIIn-week ~2 pts toward Virginia Tech
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Virginia Tech's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 98%. Historically, the market shaded about 3.6 points toward VMI (average-estimate range 2.4–4.6), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?VMI 3 · Virginia Tech 73
Pregame OV Line
Virginia Tech -52.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Virginia Tech -54.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Virginia Tech -49
Actual margin
Virginia Tech by 70

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
VMI <0.01%Virginia Tech >99.9%

Compare Teams

VMIVSVirginia Tech

Model View

Overall Rating—+5.7 · #47
Offense Rating—+3.7
Defense Rating—+2.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.17
Offense Success Rate—41.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.1
Playoff Odds—0.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank—73rd