Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern

Week 1 · Sep 5Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Statesboro, GA
Charleston SouthernFCS
@
Georgia Southern4–4-7.1 vs. avg · #94

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia Southern -24Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -28.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Southern -24Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward Georgia SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia Southern -26.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Georgia SouthernExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Southern -24Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Georgia SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia Southern -25Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -25.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Georgia SouthernSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward Georgia SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia Southern -26.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -28.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward Georgia SouthernExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward Georgia SouthernAt open ~1 pt toward Georgia SouthernIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia Southern

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward Georgia SouthernAt open ~1 pt toward Georgia SouthernIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia Southern
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Georgia Southern's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 54%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Georgia Southern (average-estimate range 1.8–3.6), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Charleston Southern 0 · Georgia Southern 31
Pregame OV Line
Georgia Southern -24
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Georgia Southern -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia Southern -26.5
Actual margin
Georgia Southern by 31

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Charleston Southern 3.9%Georgia Southern 96.1%

Compare Teams

Charleston SouthernVSGeorgia Southern

Model View

Overall Rating—-7.1 · #94
Offense Rating—-1.8
Defense Rating—-5.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.20
Offense Success Rate—44.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed—48.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.0
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—89th