Norfolk State at Old Dominion

Week 1 · Sep 5S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk, VA
Norfolk StateFCS
@
Old Dominion2–7-16.0 vs. avg · #122

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineOld Dominion -41.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusOld Dominion -41.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 5:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineOld Dominion -41.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Old DominionOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineOld Dominion -42.5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Norfolk StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineOld Dominion -41.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Norfolk StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Old Dominion -40.5Opening Market ConsensusOld Dominion -41.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward Old DominionSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward Old DominionOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Old Dominion -42.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusOld Dominion -41.5Unexplained gap~1 pt toward Norfolk StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward Old DominionAt open ~1 pt toward Norfolk StateIn-week ~2 pts toward Old Dominion

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward Old DominionAt open ~1 pt toward Norfolk StateIn-week ~2 pts toward Old Dominion
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Old Dominion's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 84%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.9 points toward Old Dominion, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Norfolk State 10 · Old Dominion 31
Pregame OV Line
Old Dominion -41.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Old Dominion -41.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Old Dominion -42.5
Actual margin
Old Dominion by 21

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Norfolk State 0.1%Old Dominion 99.9%

Compare Teams

Norfolk StateVSOld Dominion

Model View

Overall Rating—-16.0 · #122
Offense Rating—-9.6
Defense Rating—-6.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.24
Offense Success Rate—45.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.02
Defense Success Rate Allowed—37.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—96th