2026 Season · Week 5

Week 5 OnVarsity

Open any matchup to compare the independent OnVarsity Line with the market, inspect possible Explanatory Factors, and make your own pick.

59games59market lines10with Factors38within a field goal2.4avg gap (pts)
UpcomingTop GamesFull ScheduleMy Picks

Week 5

Oct 1–Oct 3 · 59 games
← Week 4Week 6 →
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#1 matchup
#1Ohio State(6–2)
OV Win84%31
#17Iowa(6–2)
OV Win16%14
Spread:OSU -13vs.OSU -14.5
Ohio State at Iowa · Iowa City, IA · Kinnick Stadium
Final · Oct 3#2 matchup
#18Florida(5–3)
OV Win67%17
#15Missouri(6–2)
OV Win33%45
Spread:FLA -5.5vs.FLA -5.5
Florida at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium
Final · Oct 2Suggested side did not cover#3 matchup
#28Penn State(4–4)
OV Win70%13
#27Northwestern(6–2)
OV Win30%34
Spread:PSU -6.5vs.PSU -2.5
Penn State at Northwestern · Evanston, IL · Ryan Field
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#4 matchup
#31Kentucky(7–1)
OV Win31%35
#16South Carolina(5–3)
OV Win69%34
Spread:SC -6.5vs.SC -2.5
Kentucky at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#5 matchup
#35Auburn(4–4)
OV Win25%14
#13Tennessee(6–2)
OV Win75%24
Spread:TENN -8.5vs.TENN -6.5
Auburn at Tennessee · Knoxville, TN · Neyland Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#6 matchup
#37Washington(5–3)
OV Win30%21
#12USC(7–2)
OV Win70%25
Spread:USC -7vs.USC -9
Washington at USC · Los Angeles, CA · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#7 matchup
#7Alabama(6–2)
OV Win71%56
#40Mississippi State(4–4)
OV Win29%23
Spread:ALA -7vs.ALA -5.5
Alabama at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#8 matchup
#23BYU(7–1)
OV Win66%17
#41TCU(4–4)
OV Win34%10
Spread:BYU -5.5vs.BYU -6
1 Factor
BYU at TCU · Fort Worth, TX · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#9 matchup
#2Notre Dame(7–1)
OV Win96%37
#45North Carolina(4–4)
OV Win4%26
Spread:ND -23vs.ND -21
1 Factor
Notre Dame at North Carolina · Chapel Hill, NC · Kenan Stadium
Final · Oct 2Suggested side covered#10 matchup
#44Pittsburgh(6–3)
OV Win46%35
#47Virginia Tech(6–2)
OV Win54%33
Spread:VT -1vs.VT -2.5
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · Blacksburg, VA · Lane Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#11 matchup
#26Michigan(5–3)
OV Win72%14
#48Minnesota(5–3)
OV Win28%20
Spread:MICH -7vs.MICH -6
Michigan at Minnesota · Minneapolis, MN · Huntington Bank Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#12 matchup
#49Purdue(3–5)
OV Win19%24
#42Illinois(5–3)
OV Win81%17
Spread:ILL -11.5vs.ILL -10
Purdue at Illinois · Champaign, IL · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#13 matchup
#8Miami(8–0)
OV Win90%41
#50Clemson(5–3)
OV Win10%13
Spread:MIA -16.5vs.MIA -15.5
Miami at Clemson · Clemson, SC · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#14 matchup
#53Cincinnati(5–3)
OV Win22%7
#21Arizona(6–2)
OV Win78%34
Spread:ARIZ -10vs.ARIZ -6.5
Cincinnati at Arizona · Tucson, AZ · Arizona Stadium
Final · Oct 3#15 matchup
#56UCF(4–4)
OV Win21%17
#30Houston(6–2)
OV Win79%27
Spread:HOU -10.5vs.HOU -10.5
UCF at Houston · Houston, TX · TDECU Stadium
Final · Oct 3#16 matchup
#57Virginia(4–5)
OV Win54%7
#43Florida State(3–5)
OV Win46%38
Spread:UVA -1.5vs.UVA -1.5
Virginia at Florida State · Tallahassee, FL · Doak Campbell Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#17 matchup
#38Baylor(5–3)
OV Win41%55
#58Arizona State(4–4)
OV Win59%19
Spread:ASU -3vs.ASU -3.5
1 Factor
Baylor at Arizona State · Tempe, AZ · Mountain America Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side pushed#18 matchup
#60West Virginia(5–3)
OV Win31%42
#61Iowa State(4–4)
OV Win69%45
Spread:ISU -6vs.ISU -3
West Virginia at Iowa State · Ames, IA · Jack Trice Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#19 matchup
#63Arkansas(3–5)
OV Win8%7
#22Texas A&M(4–4)
OV Win92%34
Spread:TA&M -18vs.TA&M -14
Arkansas at Texas A&M · College Station, TX · Kyle Field
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#20 matchup
#66Vanderbilt(3–5)
OV Win2%14
#3Georgia(7–1)
OV Win98%38
Spread:UGA -26vs.UGA -25.5
Vanderbilt at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium
Final · Oct 3#21 matchup
#67Michigan State(2–6)
OV Win24%3
#33Wisconsin(5–3)
OV Win76%31
Spread:WIS -9vs.WIS -9
Michigan State at Wisconsin · Madison, WI · Camp Randall Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#22 matchup
#29Louisville(5–3)
OV Win70%28
#69NC State(4–4)
OV Win30%31
Spread:LOU -6.5vs.LOU -3
Louisville at NC State · Raleigh, NC · Carter-Finley Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#23 matchup
#11Texas Tech(7–1)
OV Win88%29
#70Colorado(3–5)
OV Win12%7
Spread:TTU -14.5vs.TTU -13.5
Texas Tech at Colorado · Boulder, CO · Folsom Field
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#24 matchup
#74Maryland(2–6)
OV Win13%23
#20Nebraska(5–3)
OV Win87%48
Spread:NEB -14vs.NEB -14.5
Maryland at Nebraska · Lincoln, NE · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#25 matchup
#76Boston College(4–4)
OV Win9%16
#36SMU(6–2)
OV Win91%25
Spread:SMU -17vs.SMU -21.5
Boston College at SMU · University Park, TX · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#26 matchup
#78Utah State(3–5)
OV Win8%18
#32Boise State(7–1)
OV Win92%37
Spread:BOIS -18vs.BOIS -19.5
Utah State at Boise State · Boise, ID · Albertsons Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#27 matchup
#79Army(5–3)
OV Win66%29
#77Louisiana Tech(6–2)
OV Win34%31
Spread:ARMY -5.5vs.ARMY -1.5
1 Factor
Army at Louisiana Tech · Ruston, LA · Joe Aillet Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#28 matchup
#6Indiana(8–1)
OV Win99%47
#80Rutgers(2–6)
OV Win1%15
Spread:IU -28.5vs.IU -24
Indiana at Rutgers · Piscataway, NJ · SHI Stadium
Final · Oct 1Suggested side covered#29 matchup
#59North Texas(6–2)
OV Win49%45
#84Tulsa(4–4)
OV Win51%44
Spread:TLSA -0.5vs.UNT -2
North Texas at Tulsa · Tulsa, OK · Chapman Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#30 matchup
#51Texas State(4–4)
OV Win47%29
#86San Diego State(4–5)
OV Win53%31
Spread:SDSU -1vs.TXST -9.5
Texas State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#31 matchup
#62Fresno State(5–3)
OV Win50%26
#87Washington State(1–8)
OV Win50%6
Spread:PKvs.WSU -1.5
Fresno State at Washington State · Pullman, WA · Gesa Field
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#32 matchup
#81Navy(2–6)
OV Win48%9
#90Air Force(6–2)
OV Win52%14
Spread:AF -0.5vs.AF -3
Navy at Air Force · Colorado Springs, CO · Falcon Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#33 matchup
#91California(3–6)
OV Win52%31
#83UNLV(5–3)
OV Win48%39
Spread:CAL -0.5vs.UNLV -2.5
California at UNLV · Las Vegas, NV · Allegiant Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#34 matchup
#73Syracuse(4–4)
OV Win74%42
#92UConn(4–4)
OV Win26%41
Spread:SYR -8vs.SYR -6.5
1 Factor
Syracuse at UConn · East Hartford, CT · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#35 matchup
#98Stanford(4–5)
OV Win18%3
#19Wake Forest(7–1)
OV Win82%57
Spread:WAKE -11.5vs.WAKE -15
Stanford at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#36 matchup
#39Oregon State(5–3)
OV Win51%56
#99Colorado State(3–5)
OV Win49%26
Spread:PKvs.ORST -6.5
Oregon State at Colorado State · Fort Collins, CO · Canvas Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#37 matchup
#104Temple(2–6)
OV Win24%17
#82South Florida(6–2)
OV Win76%13
Spread:USF -9vs.USF -5.5
Temple at South Florida · Tampa, FL · Raymond James Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#38 matchup
#108Marshall(5–3)
OV Win11%17
#68James Madison(7–2)
OV Win89%45
Spread:JMU -15.5vs.JMU -18
Marshall at James Madison · Harrisonburg, VA · Bridgeforth Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#39 matchup
#110Wyoming(5–3)
OV Win10%0
#72North Dakota State(7–2)
OV Win90%28
Spread:NDSU -16.5vs.NDSU -17
1 Factor
Wyoming at North Dakota State · Fargo, ND · Fargodome
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#40 matchup
#94Georgia Southern(4–4)
OV Win51%31
#112Coastal Carolina(3–5)
OV Win49%24
Spread:GASO -0.5vs.GASO -2
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · Conway, SC · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#41 matchup
#113Arkansas State(4–4)
OV Win30%20
#85Louisiana(5–3)
OV Win70%23
Spread:UL -7vs.UL -6.5
Arkansas State at Louisiana · Lafayette, LA · Cajun Field
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#42 matchup
#114San José State(4–5)
OV Win42%20
#103Hawai'i(2–6)
OV Win58%16
Spread:HAW -2.5vs.HAW -3
1 Factor
San José State at Hawai'i · Honolulu, HI · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Final · Oct 2Suggested side did not cover#43 matchup
#71Liberty(7–1)
OV Win57%30
#115Delaware(4–4)
OV Win43%14
Spread:LIB -2vs.LIB -7
Liberty at Delaware · Newark, DE · Delaware Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#44 matchup
#64UTSA(7–1)
OV Win86%16
#118Rice(1–7)
OV Win14%14
Spread:UTSA -14vs.UTSA -12.5
UTSA at Rice · Houston, TX · Rice Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#45 matchup
#89Western Michigan(6–3)
OV Win85%20
#120Buffalo(5–3)
OV Win15%17
Spread:WMU -13vs.WMU -12.5
Western Michigan at Buffalo · Amherst, NY · UB Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#46 matchup
#122Old Dominion(2–7)
OV Win51%10
#109Georgia State(4–4)
OV Win49%42
Spread:ODU -0.5vs.GAST -2.5
Old Dominion at Georgia State · Atlanta, GA · Center Parc Stadium
Final · Oct 1Suggested side covered#47 matchup
#119Western Kentucky(3–5)
OV Win41%13
#126New Mexico State(3–5)
OV Win59%34
Spread:NMSU -3vs.NMSU -2.5
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · Las Cruces, NM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Final · Oct 3#48 matchup
#127Bowling Green(2–7)
OV Win17%24
#107Miami (OH)(5–3)
OV Win83%20
Spread:M-OH -12vs.M-OH -12
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · Oxford, OH · Yager Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#49 matchup
#128Middle Tennessee(4–4)
OV Win4%0
#52Kansas(3–5)
OV Win96%55
Spread:KU -21.5vs.KU -20.5
1 Factor
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · Lawrence, KS · Memorial Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#50 matchup
#123Eastern Michigan(4–5)
OV Win53%38
#129Massachusetts(4–4)
OV Win47%14
Spread:EMU -1vs.MASS -6
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · Hadley, MA · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#51 matchup
#88Toledo(6–2)
OV Win92%39
#130Ball State(3–5)
OV Win8%24
Spread:TOL -18vs.TOL -21
Toledo at Ball State · Muncie, IN · Scheumann Stadium
Final · Oct 3#52 matchup
#65Memphis(7–2)
OV Win93%59
#131Charlotte(1–7)
OV Win7%8
Spread:MEM -19vs.MEM -20.5
1 Factor
Memphis at Charlotte · Charlotte, NC · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#53 matchup
#96Ohio(6–2)
OV Win74%13
#134Kent State(3–6)
OV Win26%10
Spread:OHIO -8vs.OHIO -3.5
Ohio at Kent State · Kent, OH · Dix Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#54 matchup
#135UL Monroe(1–7)
OV Win13%35
#102South Alabama(4–4)
OV Win87%52
Spread:USA -14.5vs.USA -14
UL Monroe at South Alabama · Mobile, AL · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#55 matchup
#136Akron(1–7)
OV Win27%17
#121Central Michigan(3–5)
OV Win73%41
Spread:CMU -8vs.CMU -7
Akron at Central Michigan · Mount Pleasant, MI · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#56 matchup
#137UTEP(1–7)
OV Win3%7
#55New Mexico(7–1)
OV Win97%61
Spread:UNM -24vs.UNM -23.5
UTEP at New Mexico · Albuquerque, NM · University Stadium (NM)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#57 matchup
McNeeseFCS
OV Win<0.01%14
#4LSU(6–2)
OV Win>99.9%63
Spread:LSU -48.5vs.LSU -53
McNeese at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Final · Oct 3Suggested side did not cover#58 matchup
Texas SouthernFCS
OV Win2%10
#100Florida Atlantic(5–3)
OV Win98%66
Spread:FAU -30.5vs.FAU -44.5
1 Factor
Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic · Boca Raton, FL · FAU Stadium
Final · Oct 3Suggested side covered#59 matchup
SamfordFCS
OV Win2%14
#111UAB(4–4)
OV Win98%33
Spread:UAB -30vs.UAB -30.5
Samford at UAB · Birmingham, AL · Protective Stadium

OnVarsity Lines are matchup-specific model estimates that exclude the focal market line. How they're calculated →