Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWestern Kentucky at New Mexico State
Week 5 · Oct 1Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
New Mexico State -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
New Mexico State -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 1, 9:05 AM EDT
New Mexico State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 1, 9:05 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Western KentuckyExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Western Kentucky.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Western Kentucky by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after losing its previous lined game by 38 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Western Kentucky 13 · New Mexico State 34
- Pregame OV Line
- New Mexico State -3
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- New Mexico State -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- New Mexico State by 21
Observed 10h 54m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNew Mexico State -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
New Mexico State -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico State -2.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
New Mexico State -2.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Western Kentucky 41.1%New Mexico State 58.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · New Mexico State -2.5
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