Close-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 624 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOklahoma at Michigan
Week 2 · Sep 12Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Oklahoma -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oklahoma -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusOklahoma -5.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Oklahoma -5.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward OklahomaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Michigan is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Oklahoma.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Oklahoma enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Oklahoma enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Oklahoma is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Oklahoma begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Oklahoma is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Oklahoma 10 · Michigan 17
- Pregame OV Line
- Oklahoma -1
- Final recorded market
- Oklahoma -5.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Michigan by 7
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineOklahoma -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Oklahoma -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market Consensus
Michigan -1.5Based on 2 books
Michigan -1.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Oklahoma 52.5%Michigan 47.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Oklahoma -5.5
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