Illinois State at Northern Illinois

Week 2 · Sep 12Huskie Stadium · DeKalb, IL

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorthern Illinois -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusIllinois State -310-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~9 pts toward Illinois StateExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Illinois State 28 · Northern Illinois 24
Pregame OV Line
Northern Illinois -6
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Illinois State -3
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Illinois State by 4

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Illinois State 60.5%Northern Illinois 39.5%

Compare Teams

Illinois StateVSNorthern Illinois

Model View

Overall Rating—-21.3 · #132
Offense Rating—-11.6
Defense Rating—-9.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.05
Offense Success Rate—34.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.3
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—85th