Memphis at UNLV

Week 0 · Aug 29Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineUNLV -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusUNLV -4.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ2 FactorsOnVarsity Opening LineUNLV -4Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward UNLVOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUNLV -6Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward MemphisExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUNLV -4Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward UNLVOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UNLV -4.5Opening Market ConsensusUNLV -3Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward MemphisSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward UNLVOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UNLV -6Current Market ConsensusUNLV -4.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward MemphisExplore similar gaps Season Opener with a New Head Coach~1 pt toward UNLVInexperienced starting QB~1 pt toward UNLVAt open ~0.5 pts toward UNLVIn-week < 0.5 pts toward UNLV

Season Opener with a New Head Coach

~1 pt toward UNLV
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Charles Huff begins his first Memphis season; UNLV returns Dan Mullen. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 1.0 point toward the returning coach (median 1.3; 66% shaded that way).

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Inexperienced starting QB

~1 pt toward UNLVAt open ~0.5 pts toward UNLVIn-week < 0.5 pts toward UNLV
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Marcus Stokes is expected to start at quarterback for Memphis with no career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.

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Completed gameWhat happened?Memphis 27 · UNLV 21
Pregame OV Line
UNLV -4
Final recorded market
UNLV -4.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
UNLV -6
Actual margin
Memphis by 6

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Memphis 39.4%UNLV 60.6%

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Compare Teams

MemphisVSUNLV

Model View

Overall Rating-0.9 · #71-3.9 · #83
Offense Rating-0.0+0.4
Defense Rating-0.9-4.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.250.30
Offense Success Rate44.9%46.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.9%44.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.48.1
Playoff Odds5.2%0.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank86th102nd