Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan at Ohio State
Week 13 · Nov 28Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH
Matchup View
Opening Line
Ohio State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusOhio State -13.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Ohio State -13.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Ohio State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Ohio State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Ohio State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Michigan is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Ohio State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Ohio State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Michigan is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineOhio State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ohio State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusOhio State -13.5Based on 1 book
Ohio State -13.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Michigan 10.1%Ohio State 89.9%
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Market consensus · Ohio State -13.5
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