Matchup View
Michigan -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Michigan -16.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Based on the current schedule, Michigan State will have 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Michigan State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyThese conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan is favored by 16.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan faces materially stronger Oregon in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Oregon.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State is a 16.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State lost the most recent meeting with Michigan.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Michigan -16.5Based on 1 bookBased on the current schedule, Michigan State will have 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Michigan State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
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Open until scheduled kickoffStraight-up winner
Market consensus · Michigan -16.5
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